ISSUE 01 · JULY 2026 · FREE
State of the board as of July 4, 2026 · spot-checked July 9 against a fresh 1,342-mock pull — nothing moved a tier
Haven't looked at fantasy football since your title game? Perfect — that's who this is for. One page: who moved, which rookies the market already trusts, where the board clumps, and which July promises drafters actually believed.
House rule: we don't do the math — we track the people who do. Everything below is live market data (Fantasy Football Calculator PPR, 1,342 mock drafts, 7/02–7/09) plus the offseason's verified moves, a source named next to every number. The reads are ours; the facts never are.
PART 1
Six months of news, one banner. Every move below is corroborated by a cited outlet and cross-checked against current rosters.
PART 2
Exactly seven rookies are getting drafted in real lobbies right now — everyone else is free, which is its own information. Not a knock on the class; a map of where the money already went. (FFC ADP, 1,342 mocks, 7/02–7/09 + Sleeper depth charts, 7/09.)
| Player | Team | ADP | Depth | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI RB | 22.4 · 2.10 | starter | The rookie king. Priced like a top-15 back before his first NFL carry — the room has fully spoken. |
| Carnell Tate | TEN WR | 63.8 · 6.04 | starter | Penciled in as a day-one starter in Tennessee (Sleeper) and priced in round 6 — the second-most-believed rookie by a mile. |
| Jadarian Price | SEA RB | 74.8 · 7.03 | starter | Still costs a round-7 pick even after national pushback on his role — see the free squares below for the other half of that story. |
| Jordyn Tyson | NO WR | 86.1 · 8.02 | depth #2 | Listed second on the Saints' depth chart, drafted in round 8 anyway. The market is paying for the target vacuum, not the depth chart. |
| Makai Lemon | PHI WR | 108.7 · 10.01 | depth #2 | A round-10 dart on an offense that already feeds three mouths. Cheap enough to be wrong about. |
| KC Concepcion | CLE WR | 120 · 10.12 | starter | Listed as a starter in Cleveland and priced in round 10 — the biggest role-to-price gap on this list. |
| Denzel Boston | CLE WR | 135.2 · 12.03 | depth #2 | Cleveland is the only team with two draftable rookie wideouts. Somebody in that room hits. |
Under center, the two rookie names to know are Fernando Mendoza (LV) and Carson Beck (ARI) [10] — but mock drafters aren't spending picks on either yet. The full rookie board, refreshed on the site's schedule, lives on the Rookies page.
PART 3
ADP = where real drafters actually take a player (12-team PPR; lower = earlier). The prices are market fact — the tier cuts and reads are ours. Cut July 4 [1], re-checked July 9 against 1,342 fresh mocks: nothing moved a tier.
elitestrongmidvaluedeep ⚠️ = a clump: a run of near-equal players. Miss one, take the next.
Allen sits alone — a 17-pick gap to Burrow, the board's clearest cliff. Then Burrow and Lamar, then a long middle-class band you can wait on. Hurts at 92.4 is the value tail of that band: same tier as Dak by market, about three rounds cheaper. The move: wait, then grab one from the Tier 3 run.
Grab the shareable card ↗RB is front-loaded and now stacked in the middle — a fat 8-back Tier 2 running through pick ~23. Miss the alphas and you still land a real starter. Then the Tier 3 clump (29–39) is the second sweet spot.
Grab the shareable card ↗Two giant WR clumps (24–32 and 36–50). This is why 'wait on WR' works — the position floods in the middle rounds.
Grab the shareable card ↗Still a barbell — grab one of the top two, or wait. Loveland and Warren are the young-ascender pair (Warren's targets cleared by the Pittman trade, Loveland the Chicago year-1 riser) sitting in a cliff of their own between Bowers (35.5) and the Fannin/LaPorta/Kraft body (64+).
Grab the shareable card ↗Want the always-fresh version? The auto-tier board re-cuts itself at the market's own ADP gaps every night.
Every July serves the same sugar-coated dessert: he's in the best shape of his life. He quit fast food. He cut sugar. He's been playing video games with the quarterback all June — they're roommates now. By camp they'll be finishing each other's sentences.
So we log it. Avocado ice cream looks like the real thing but isn't — same here: looks like football, mostly fluff. Every puff piece gets a scoop rating (more scoops, more fluff) and a receipt from the only lie detector we trust: the market's wallet. Price moved? The room believed it. Price was already there before the story ran? Old news in a new bowl — did they double-scoop it? The story was baked into ADP a month ago; reacting to it now is what the best-ball streets call double-counting, one scoop rung up twice. Nothing moved at all? It was just ice cream.
Scoops = servings of offseason fluff. 🥑 1 scoop = mostly real football underneath · 🥑🥑🥑🥑🥑 5 scoops = pure avocado ice cream, zero football detected. More scoops, less substance.
Anointed Detroit's "bellcow"
2 scoops
Pick 1.02 overall, drafted between 1 and 3 in every room (FFC via TrendEngine, 869 mocks, 6/25–7/02) — and still 1.02 in the fresh 1,342-mock pull (7/02–7/09). Only two scoops because there's real football underneath: Detroit actually traded David Montgomery to Houston [9]. The rare promise with paperwork.
Anointed Carolina's "workhorse"
3 scoops
The single widest disagreement in the top 100 — ADP spread (stdev) of 10.1 (FFC via TrendEngine, 6/25–7/02), price at pick 7.06 (ADP 78.1, FFC 1,342 mocks, 7/02–7/09). The mock lobbies heard the promise and started arguing instead of drafting.
Anointed "the guy" in that same Carolina backfield
3 scoops
ADP 131.1 — pick 11.11 (FFC, 1,342 mocks, 7/02–7/09) — and listed second on Carolina's own depth chart (Sleeper, 7/09). Two workhorse promises, one backfield. The market kept its wallet closed until round 11.
Will play "full-time"
4 scoops
ADP 12.5, pick 1.12, market in full agreement (FFC, 1,342 mocks, 7/02–7/09). Promising that your first-round pick will play a lot is the least surprising sentence of the summer. The price didn't move because there was nothing to learn.
Promised "10 targets a game"
4 scoops
ADP 37.0, pick 4.01, tight consensus (FFC, 1,342 mocks, 7/02–7/09). Nobody has ever been fined for July target math. The room nodded along and drafted him exactly where he already was.
Index status: 5 entries logged, 1 believed, 1 argument, 3 shrugs. Training camp opens in a few weeks — prime scoop season — and the first "quit sugar, best shape of his life" story gets logged the day it lands.
Two names where the story exists and the price doesn't — checked against all 157 draftable FFC slots (TrendEngine, 7/03) and re-checked in the fresh 7/09 pull: still drafted by nobody.
Claiborne (MIN) — a 426-upvote homework thread dubbed him "Diet Achane." The market's response so far: nothing. He is free.
Holani (SEA) — ESPN says he's "squarely in the plans." Also free — while rookie Jadarian Price still costs a round-7 pick on the same depth chart.
Full disclosure, straight from the homework thread itself: late darts like these hit about 1 in 38. That's the whole game with free squares — they're free because they usually miss. Take the lottery ticket. Don't call it a plan.
When the smart crowd splits, your own call is worth the most — that's the whole diverging-tides thesis. The biggest arguments on the board right now (ADP spread, FFC via TrendEngine, 869 mocks, 6/25–7/02):
The live argument tracker — updated on refresh — is on the Divergence board.
If you read this far, you're caught up — genuinely. Camp opens in a couple of weeks, depth charts start moving, and the Index hits prime scoop season. Snapshot #2 lands when the news does.
Until then, the boards below refresh on their own schedule — twice a week in the offseason, daily once the season starts — free, no login: the tier board re-cuts itself at the market's own gaps, the rookie board tracks the class, and the Divergence board keeps score of the arguments.
All the free boards →Auto TiersRookiesDivergence
One clean read on where the market's moving, every Tuesday. 30 seconds, no fluff, no popups.
ADP + team + roster data = FFC market data and Sleeper roster dumps (dated inline). Every marquee move in the movement banner is corroborated by at least one cited outlet and cross-checked against the FFC team tag. Destination-only tags (Walker, Etienne, Dowdle, Murray) reflect current-roster fact from the FFC dataset [1]. No facts from model memory.